Archive for July, 2008

Risk and Return: NFL Style

July 15, 2008

Bret Farve is talented enough to play as a starter in the NFL for almost any team he would join. Ironically, he may not be the starter for the team where he built his legend, The Green Bay Packers. The crux of the issue is that Farve retired earlier this year after a prolonged debate as to whether or not to play another year. He reached his decision, after some prodding by Packer management, in March. This led the Packers to begin planning their future post Farve, and not unreasonably, have prepared for another man to become their starting quarterback for the upcoming season. During the past month, Farve has sent signals to the Packers and the media that he would like to play again, and either join the Packers or another team looking for a veteran quarterback.

So, now the Packer dilemma. Whether to allow Farve to return as the starter and go back on their word to thier expected future franchise quarterback, or to allow him to play for another team and possibly him have beat the Packers at some point during the season. In an ideal world, Farve would be able to continue his career and amuse fans and fellow players alike with his grit and amazing throws. Alas, in an ideal world Farve and his fellow players would play for the love of the game, while fans could watch for free. But the NFL is full of moral hazard problems which have resulted in very complex contracts to enforce optimal behavior on the part of players and owners.

Farve’s 2001 contract illustrates how both players and management try to protect their interests and illustrate that the NFL is big business, fan emotion aside. Into 2001, Farve signed a 10 year contract worth approximately $100 million. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, anywhere from $20 to $30 million of that contract was guaranteed whether Farve performed up to the team’s expectations or not. By accepting such security, Farve effectively sold his options to choose where to play football over the next 10 years. Alternatively, Green Bay took the risk of Farve under performing or getting hurt during the term of his contract in exchange for the guaranteed money they paid. Additionally Green Bay also accepted the risk that Farve may decide to retire early, creating a succession problem for them at the quarterback position.best

Because sports has such emotional appeal, what in most circumstances is an absurd concept suddenly becomes open to debate. For example, lets say you contract with the best language teacher in town to prepare you for an exam required to get your dream job. You arrange for 20 lessons, of which 10 must be pre-paid. Unfortunately, after lesson 5 your instructor decides to retire and refunds you the 5 lessons you pre-paid. How would you feel? Would you try to find a replacement? If you found a new instructor you were very comfortable with, would you hire the original instructor if she decided to “unretire”? What if you still had a contract with the original instructor and had to hire him regardless of whether or not you hired a replacement? Now lets say that in addition to your new instructor, you also have the original instructor, but he asks that you let him out of his contract so he can train your main rival for this job? What would you do? No one wants to be in this situation, but if you were forced to pay the original instructor, my guess is you would certainly want to prevent him from training your rival.

The Green Bay situation plays out in a similar to this, except the team has guaranteed and already paid Farve tens of millions of dollars, and has made significant financial and operational commitments to adjust to Farve’s retirement. Given that Green Bay seems comfortable with its prospects without Farve for 2008 is not the same thing as saying it is comfortable seeing Farve play for a rival. It is unreasonable to think the team will allow Farve to walk away and go to a division rival and possibly ruin Green Bay’s chances for a Super Bowl win. In order to maintain that privilege, Green Bay must pay Farve approximately $10 million, which is the option they purchased with the 2001 contract. In exchange for is contract, Farve’s choice is to stay retired, accept a lesser role in Green Bay, or work out a situation with the team where he is traded to another, mutually acceptable team. Regardless of legal issues in tis contract, Farve is trying to effect his desired solution via a public relations campaign to force Green Bay’s hand. So far the team seems to be holding out for a solution that maximizes its value, regardless of the public relations nightmare it is enduring at the moment.

So what is a realistic solution to this problem? In general any solution should be tilted in Green Bay’s favor, as they have the strongest legal position, and if they have planned correctly will over come short term PR problems. At the same time, to respect the history of the game, they should be willing to make some accommodations to allow one of the greatest to play quarterback to continue entertaining. It seems to me that any solution should have as a component Farve returning or forgoing some of his guaranteed money, and an agreement that Farve will not be traded to a division rival or a losing team. While this may not result in an optimal solution for either party, it should prove workable. Farve can return to play where he is wanted with a shot to return to the playoffs, and Green bay can recoup part of its busted investment and not have to face Farve twice in the regular season. Both sides tried to minimize their risk with Farve’s current contract, and as a result neither is able to secure their current optimal outcome, but that is the fundamental nature of risk.

The Chicago Sports Guy has some Farve thoughts here.

Teaching to the Test

July 13, 2008

Among the dumbest arguments put forth by politicians against having standards accountability in education, is the complaint that as a result of standards, teachers will “teach to the test” to the detriment of other skills.  Unless teachers receive a copy of the test students will take, how is it possible to “teach to a test”?

If the goal for students in a given grade is to learn how to multiply and divide, and the teacher covers those subjects such that students pass the test, how is that bad?  It amazes me that parents are not more adamant that schools implement greater accountability than what federal and state programs require.  It is nice for teaches to expose students to many experiences, but first and foremost, teachers must ensure that children learn the basic skills required to succeed in a global economy.

The Irony of Latin Immigration

July 9, 2008

In general Latins immigrate to the US in order to seek opportunities, as their economies are run into the ground by governments that seek to control the economy, private property, and individual freedoms.

The majority of these groups, with the exception of Cubans, tend to flock to the democratic party which promises to seek control of the economy, private property, and individual freedoms.

Robert Samuelson summarizes how this issue will only grow with time:

Pew projects that immigrants will constitute 19 percent of Americans in 2050, up from 12 percent in 2005. The Hispanic share of the population will double, from 14 percent to 29 percent. If most immigrants assimilated rapidly, this wouldn’t be worrisome. But many, especially Hispanics, don’t.

Read his entire article here.

I would laugh if it was not my country, instead it makes me want to cry.

The 60% Solution?

July 8, 2008

I performed some simple tax planning recently, and discovered that if Obama wins and passes his economic plans, as a California resident, I will pay 60% of every incremental dollar I earn.

It will be a sad day for America if society feels it is entitled to keep more of the value of my effort than me. Similar to the surreal world of Atlas Shrugged, when societies great producers decided they would not work for another individual, how much will a President Obama feel he is entitled to take from an individual?

While I thought such beliefs among politicians had died with the success of the Regan Revolution, it is possible that some lessons have to be learned by every generation. By taxing income at such high levels, Obama will significantly reduce the incentive to take risks, the key behind America’s amazing entrepreneurial spirit.

Lets hope that such a silly and immorally misguided idea does not come to pass as it would indeed be a sad day in our great country’s ongoing celebration of individual freedom. Ultimately building a tax strategy that relies on taking predominantly from the rich to get votes from everyone else will result in all of society suffering.   This stems from fewer people taking risks as they realize their returns to risk taking are relatively less attractive than other activities , this in turn leads to less innovation and reduced economic growth. Ultimately, this will hurt lower and middle economic class individuals more than upper and wealthy individuals through fewer jobs and stifled innovation.

Why We Do Not Speak French or German

July 8, 2008

Today Barrack Obama lamented that when Europeans come to America they speak English as well the language from their native country. He then mocks Americans for going to Europe and basically only being able to speak a few words from a tourist book.

I could not help but laugh as I heard this for a number of reasons. Being bilingual, I have been able to travel to Spanish speaking countries and never speak a word of English. I felt no smarter or better educated in those countries than I did when I was in China and could not speak a word of Chinese. After traveling around the world twice in the last year, living for extended periods of time in Europe, and visiting Asia 7 times in the past 3 years, learning foreign languages is nice but having a strong global demand for other countries to learn English is much nicer.

That is the key point that Senator Obama really misses. People speak English all over the world, not to feel educated, but because they prosper as a result of learning it . By virtue of our dominating economy, people around the world have an incentive to speak English in order to trade with us, and seek out opportunities in our great country.

While France, Germany, and Japan are wonderful countries, learning their languages provides an American very few economic benefits. Thus creating some mandate to learn a foreign language is ultimately not much more than throwing a bone to the teachers union to ensure greater employment.

More important, is to realize that maintaining our economic freedom will ensure the world continues to beat a path to our door to learn English, in order to benefit from our riches. Having English as world’s primary language is a huge benefit to our citizens, similar to having the US dollar be the currency of record around the world. Just one simple example, while the world spends considerable resources to learn English, our students should be learning more advanced math, computer, and science skills to widen our lead in these areas. Realize, that this only results from our economy being the most efficient, productive and dynamic.

Increasing the tax on productive capital as Senator Obama is intent on doing will only serve to weaken our economic productivity and possibly create the economic incentives for Americans to learn other languages as our economy weakens and reduces the global demand to learn English.

Much more funny than Americans only speaking a few words of French, are the politicians that never seems to fluently speak economics other than a few silly slang words like “Tax the Rich”.  A friend summarized nicely, “English is the language of prosperity”.